December’s overlooked meteor shower peaks next week — will the Ursids surprise us?
When skywatchers think of December meteor showers, the Geminids typically come to mind as the most prolific and dependable among the annual displays. Yet December also hosts another noteworthy shower that tends to fly under the radar: the Ursids. The peak usually unfolds during the overnight hours of December 21–22.
Why they’re called Ursids
The Ursids appear to radiate from near the bright orange star Kochab in the constellation Ursa Minor, the Little Bear. Kochab is one of the two bright stars in the Little Dipper’s bowl, the other being Pherkad. Together they appear to march in a circular pattern around Polaris, the North Star.
Where to look
Because Kochab sits close to the north celestial pole, it stays visible for most Northern Hemisphere observers. As the Ursids radiate from that region, you can spot these faint, medium-speed meteors across the sky for much of the night if you keep watching. The timing looks favorable this year, since a new moon occurs on December 19, providing darker skies.
Visibility and timing tips
These meteors are best seen during the last dark hour before dawn, when the radiant is highest in a clear sky. On the maximum morning, you can expect roughly 5–10 Ursids per hour. They strike Earth’s atmosphere at about 22 miles per second (35 km/s) and are generally medium-speed fireballs. Activity tends to be modest outside of the peak night.
Historical activity
The Ursids are a relatively modest shower and have produced a couple of notable outbursts in the last seven decades—in 1945 and 1986—though weather often limits what observers can report. Minor enhancements have been noted from 2006–2008 and again in 2011, 2014, 2015, 2017, and 2020. These fluctuations may be linked to the shower’s parent comet, 8P/Tuttle, which follows a 13.6-year orbit and last swung by the Sun in August 2021. Interestingly, many Ursid peaks have occurred when Tuttle was at aphelion, far from the Sun, which makes precise predictions tricky.
Could there be heightened activity in 2025?
No unusually intense activity is forecast for 2025. However, Dutch-American meteor astronomer Peter Jenniskens notes a potential encounter with a dense filament of meteoric material on December 22 at 12:39 a.m. EST, with an hourly rate around 25—similar to his estimates for 2021–2024—though such spikes have not consistently materialized in observational reports. French meteor expert Jérémie Vaubaillon’s computer simulations place the densest part of the stream near Earth around 5:00 a.m. EST on December 22, but without a pronounced peak.
What to do if you’re curious
If you’re awake before dawn on December 22 and the skies are clear, step outside and scan the northern sky. The near-new moon gives you a rare opportunity to end the year with a quiet, dark sky and a chance to witness what the Ursids might deliver.
About the author
Joe Rao is a long-time space and astronomy writer. He teaches at New York’s Hayden Planetarium and contributes to Natural History, Sky & Telescope, and other outlets. Rao is a veteran meteorologist and eclipse chaser with more than two decades of experience in his field. You can follow him on Twitter and YouTube for updates on lunar or solar eclipses, meteor showers, and other skywatching events.
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