The Rise of One Nation: A New Political Force in Australia?
In the lead-up to the federal election last year, a narrative emerged that offered a glimmer of hope for the Coalition's struggling campaign. With the popularity of One Nation on the rise, there was a belief that Pauline Hanson's supporters could swing the vote in favor of the Liberals, especially in working-class areas outside major cities.
However, this narrative failed to materialize as the Coalition's suburban strategy fell flat on election day. Yet, nine months later, One Nation's presence is still felt, but this time as a genuine electoral opponent.
A Shift Towards Populism
Pollsters and political insiders attribute One Nation's rise to financial hardships and disillusionment with the major parties, particularly the Coalition. After years on the political fringes, Hanson's brand of right-wing populism is gaining traction, appealing to those who feel let down by the traditional parties.
The latest Guardian Essential poll shows One Nation's primary vote at an impressive 22%, almost triple what they achieved in the 2025 election. Peter Lewis, a director at Essential Media, suggests that this support should be seen as a sign of dissatisfaction with the major parties, especially the Liberals and Nationals, rather than a solid voting intention. Nevertheless, he emphasizes that this rise cannot be ignored.
An Expression of Discontent
Kos Samaras, a former Labor strategist and pollster, believes One Nation is becoming a political haven for those voting on cultural issues. These voters, once loyal to the Coalition, have experienced financial struggles and a decline in living standards. Now, they are voting based on cultural grievances, and One Nation provides an outlet for these frustrations.
The Essential poll confirms that One Nation's rise is primarily driven by Coalition voters moving further to the right. A significant 23% of 2025 Coalition voters now intend to support One Nation, while a smaller but notable 8% of former Labor voters have also switched their allegiance to Hanson.
Challenging the Stereotypes
One Nation's support base is traditionally associated with older, non-university-educated individuals on middle-to-low incomes, primarily outside capital cities. However, recent findings challenge these stereotypes. One Nation is polling higher among female voters (23%) compared to the Coalition (21%), and it also performs well with 35-54 year-olds (26% vs. the Coalition's 19%).
This polling surge is not tied to any new policies or a softening of Hanson's stances. One Nation's political strategy remains focused on two key issues: ending "mass migration" and withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement. Despite the Coalition's attempts to address these concerns, they have failed to curb One Nation's momentum.
A Clear and Concise Message
Barnaby Joyce, the former Nationals leader who joined One Nation, attributes their appeal to the "clarity" of their positions. One Nation offers a straightforward and binary approach, which contrasts with the more nuanced stances of the Liberals and Nationals. Joyce believes that in the wake of recent events, such as the Bondi massacre, voters are seeking direct action rather than attempts to please everyone.
One Nation's recent email to supporters boasts a 600% increase in membership since the election, although actual numbers remain undisclosed. The party now has branches in all 150 federal electorates, indicating a rapid growth in support.
The Threat to Lower House Seats
A January Newspoll showed One Nation leading the Coalition in primary votes for the first time, prompting Hanson to declare her ambition to make One Nation a viable alternative government. While this goal is ambitious, given their single seat in the lower house, election analysts suggest that One Nation's current support could put them in contention for over 30 seats, particularly in rural and regional areas.
Seats like Wright, Flynn, Capricornia, Hinkler, Wide Bay, and Dawson, currently held by the LNP in Queensland, could be up for grabs, along with Labor-held Blair outside Brisbane. Additionally, One Nation could target Hunter and Paterson in New South Wales, where they finished second in the 2025 election.
The threat of One Nation has already influenced political decisions, such as the Nationals' opposition to Labor's hate speech laws, which ultimately led to the end of the Coalition. The Nationals' MP, Colin Boyce, warned of a "right-flank onslaught" from One Nation if they were to split from the Liberals. Boyce's comments, coupled with One Nation's recruitment drive and plans for a significant announcement, indicate a potential shift in the political landscape.
The Future of One Nation
Will One Nation's recent surge lead to a more unified and organized political force, or will it fizzle out as it has in the past? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: Australia's conservatives are facing a genuine electoral opponent in One Nation, and the political landscape may never be the same.
